Flight 370 - What really happened in the flight deck?

11 days on - What do we really know?

11 days on from the most unprecedented event in aviation history of which we have yet to still determine, what do we really know so far?

KEY: 
ACARS (Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System) 
ATC (Air Traffic Control)
CVR (Cockpit Voice Recorder)
ELT (Emergency Locator Transmitter)
FDR (Flight Data Recorder)
FT (Feet)
NM (Nautical Miles)
L (Local Time)
Z (Zulu Time)

FACTS

• MH370 operated by a Boeing 777-200ER departs Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia at 00:41L on 8th March 2014 (16:41Z, 7th March), the flight climbs to its cruising altitude of 35,000ft en-route to Beijing, China with 227 passengers and a crew of 12 onboard.

• MH370 has a total block fuel of 7hrs, its required fuel for the route is 5hrs 55mins. The 1hr 05mins of buffer fuel is required for safety regulations and to allow holding and diversion if necessary, its fuel was within guidelines. Its fuel would have run out at around 07:30L (23:30Z).

• At 01:07L (17:07Z) the last ACARS message is received signifying the aircraft is operating normally, it will next transmit a message at 01:37L (17:37Z).

• At 01:19L (17:19Z), MH370 is handed off to controllers in Vietnam - The last words from the flight deck are spoken by the First Officer, ''All right, good night.''

• At 01:21L (17:21Z), the transponder is switched off - it is not known when precisely the ACARS system is switched off, the next scheduled message transmission from ACARS was 01:37L (17:37Z), meaning it could have been switched off anytime between 01:07L (17:07Z) and 01:37L (17:37Z).

• At 01:21L (17:21Z), MH370 deviates from its route to Beijing, the flight never reaches IGARI, it changes direction and heads directly west to waypoint VAMPI together with the navigational change its altitude also climbs/drops.

• At 02:40L (18:40Z), MH370 is last tracked routing from VAMPI to GIVAL and then to IGREX, it's altitude continues to fluctuate; well below and above its cruise altitude of 35,000ft. It is now 285nm from IGARI, at precisely the same time the flight is declared missing around that waypoint.

• Until 08:11L (00:11Z), MH370 continues to broadcast via satellites; meaning it possibly flew on for another 5 to 6 hours after its disappearance. However it is believed these broadcasts contained no data, simply the aircraft was communicating, ''I'm here, are you?''.

THEORIES

Has MH370 been landed?

It is possible MH370 has been landed. For two reasons we can speculate to this; the first being MH370 continued to broadcast to satellites until 08:11L (00:11Z)  - It's fuel would have run out around 07:30L (23:30Z), it is likely it would have even before this as the flight flew at lower altitudes meaning it flew in more dense air and thus its fuel burn increased further reducing its range. The second reason is the lack of wreckage and the skill shown in the flights operation after its disappearance; the flight was flown in a relatively controlled manner and was being flown via waypoints - only a skilled aviator would use waypoints.

Has MH370 more than likely crashed?

There is no conclusive evidence the flight has crashed. There has been no wreckage found, no radar blips to show the flight was being descended rapidly toward the ocean or land and finally no broadcast of the aircraft's distress systems which include the ELT and pinging from the CVR and FDR.

Where is MH370?

The location of MH370 could be anywhere within approximately 1/10 of the earth's surface or in essence looking for MH370 is the same as searching all of Australia or 2.24 million square nautical miles. A monumental task and definitely unprecedented in aviation history. The flight could have taken two routes from its last known position at 02:40L (18:40Z);

If the flight headed north it would more than likely mean the aircraft is potentially safe; if it headed south it would be in the direction of the open Indian Ocean, it's depth reaches 14,000ft at points and would be deeper than the found wreckage of AF447.

On 18th March 2014, it was confirmed by Thai authorities the flight was potentially tracked heading west. This further adds to the mystery the flight continued heading either north or south. If it headed north it could have potentially reached as far as Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

Who could be responsible for the actions on MH370?

There is no conclusive evidence to date to show any particular individual person or group was responsible for the disappearance of flight MH370. There is rife speculation the crew were responsible; however as pointed out it is just that, speculation.

However, who ever was in control during the disappearance before reaching IGARI (last on-course waypoint) definitely had a high level of knowledge with the Boeing 777, its systems, navigating using waypoints and disabling critical Boeing 777 systems. Naturally by the media, the pilots take center stage for such known actions however it is highly plausible the flight deck was breached and the crew were subsequently incapacitated and/or following orders.

SUMMARY

What really happened in the flight deck?

HIJACKING

Why was it hijacked remains the puzzling and unnerving thing about this disappearance, with the latest information at hand it seems the possible routing south over the Indian Ocean may be actually far off the route it actually took. It is known that India switches off primary radar overnight to save costs operating the system, meaning MH370 could have passed over India undetected and/or in the shadow of a flight through subsequent countries. Shadowing would involve flying very close to traffic from below - This would cancel out the blip of MH370 and it would show as a single blip on primary radar screens, the flight would not be detected by other aircraft as MH370's systems had been switched off preventing detection by other aircraft and on secondary radar. 

Even thinking of shadowing by a commercial airliner is unprecedented; but it is most definitely not unknown. My final thought is that the Captain and First Officer were not responsible for the disappearance. Neither requested to be on the flight together; both had backgrounds which would give you the direct opposite impression to a suicidal individual or someone who had personally taken control for an unknown cause.

DECOMPRESSION OR FIRE

MH370's turnback could be possibly explained by a sudden decompression or fire, any good pilot's instinct is to Aviate, Navigate, Communicate - First make sure the aircraft is flyable, make sure you can control it through all its parameters - Secondly turn the aircraft back, land at the nearest and safest possible airport, thirdly communicate to ATC and let them know what is going on and your intentions. 

If I speculate to say possibly the flight suddenly experienced a rapid decompression, in that event the immediate concern is to descend to a safe altitude and turn the aircraft around for an emergency landing - Had the decompression been extremely sudden either pilot could have commenced the turn via HDG (Heading) mode and passed out thereafter, meaning the flight continued on its new heading on autopilot with nobody in control.

In the event of a sudden fire as previously speculated by me on my initial post on the flight's disappearance depending on its severity it can effect anything from control surface movements to electrics in the flight through severing of control lines and aircraft systems.

In both cases had the pilots passed out or been incapacitated the flight would have continued on its assigned altitude until it ran out of fuel or until it potentially disintegrated. 

BACKGROUND INFORMATION - THE CAPTAIN

Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah, 53, is an individual who has been flying with Malaysia Airlines since 1981, he was one of the initial pilot's on Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 when they were introduced with the airline in 1997. He is a training Captain with Malaysia Airlines. He is married and had 3 kids. He partook in events to help improve the lives of those with illnesses and disabilities. He is a passionate aviator, who on his days off is even flying using his home simulator. He is a political activist who campaigned for improvements to ordinary people's lives through stopping corruption amongst other things in Government.

BACKGROUND INFORMATION - THE FIRST OFFICER

First Officer Fariq Abdul Hamid, 27, joined Malaysia Airlines in 2007, he is a relatively inexperienced pilot on the Boeing 777 having transitioned to the aircraft from the Boeing 737 in late 2013. It is now known he is planning to marry his girlfriend who is a pilot at AirAsia, both had trained together in a pilot school in Kuala Lumpur and had known each other for over nine years.

                                                                                                                                 

Primarily I believe it was a hijacking, varying from individuals onboard the flight to those responsible for its operation for unknown reasons at this time. However alike everybody, I have no idea what precisely happened MH370, it's disappearance is unprecedented - And whatever the outcome of the event that has taken place it will be shocking to the aviation industry. Together with this the Malaysian Authorities are being less than forth-coming and are far from transparent, such behaviour is leading to them losing their credibility and further impacting the feelings of the families of those missing.

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